Tuesday, 30 July 2013

Election Surprise Tests Hun Sen’s Popularity, CPP’s Future Plans

By and - July 30, 2013

In the month leading up to Sunday’s national election, the face of Prime Minister Hun Sen was omnipresent in Cambodia.

Every few meters along the main boulevards in Phnom Penh, Mr. Hun Sen, depicted on Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) campaign banners, smiled and waved at passersby. In the provinces, the prime minister was shown on large roadside billboards, folding his hands in respect to villagers or seated in a rice paddy and wearing a krama.

In his speeches in the months leading up to the election, Mr. Hun Sen placed himself at the center of the CPP’s campaign platform.

រយៈ​​​ពេល​​​មួយ​​​ខែ​​​មុន​​​ការ​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​ជាតិ​​​ ​កាលពី​ថ្ងៃ​អាទិត្យ​​នេះ មុខ​​​របស់​​​លោក​​​នាយក​​​រដ្ឋ​​​មន្ត្រី​​​ ហ៊ុន សែន គឺ​​​ឃើញ​​​មាន​​​នៅ​​​គ្រប់​​​​​​ទី​​​កន្លែង​​​​​​ក្នុង​​​ប្រទេស​​​ កម្ពុជា​​​។
នៅ​​​តាម​​​បណ្ដោយ​​​មហាវិថី​​​នានា​​​ក្នុង​​​រាជ​​​ធានី​​​ភ្នំពេញ​​​ លោក​​​ ហ៊ុន សែន ដែល​​​មាន​​​មុខ​​​​​​ក្នុង​​​ផ្ទាំង​​​ឃោសនា​​​របស់​​​គណបក្សប្រជា​​​ជន​​​ កម្ពុជា​​​ បាន​​​​​បញ្ចេញ​​​ស្នាម​​​ញញឹម និង​​​គ្រវីដៃ​​​ដាក់​​​អ្នក​​​ធ្វើ​​​ដំណើរ​​​ឆ្លង​​​កាត់​​​ទាំង​​​ឡាយ​​​ ។ នៅ​​​តាម​​​បណ្ដា​​​ខេត្ត​​​ មុខ​​​របស់​​​នាយក​​​រដ្ឋ​​​មន្ត្រី​​​រូប​​​នេះ​​​ត្រូវ​​​បាន​​​បង្ហាញ​​​ ក្នុង​​​ផ្ទាំង​​​ឃោសនា​​​ធំៗ​​​តាម​​​បណ្ដោយ​​​ផ្លូវនានា​​​​​​ ដោយ​​​លើក​​​ដៃ​​​សំពះ​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​ ឬ​​​អង្គុយ​​​​​​​​​​​បង់​​​ក្រមាក្នុង​​​វាល​​​ស្រែ​​​​​​។
ក្នុង​​​សុន្ទរកថា​​​រយៈ​​​​​ពេល​​​ប៉ុន្មាន​​​ខែ​​​មុន​​​ការ​​​បោះ​​​ ឆ្នោត​​​ លោក ហ៊ុន សែន បាន​​​ចេញ​​​មុខ​​​យ៉ាង​​​ខ្លាំង​​​ក្នុង​​​យុទ្ធនាការ​​​ឃោសនា​​​របស់​​​គណ ​​​បក្ស​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​។ ឃ្លា​​​មួយ​​​ដែល​​​គេ​​​តែង​​​បាន​​​ឮ​​​ក្នុង​​​សុន្ទរកថា​​​របស់​​​លោក ហ៊ុន សែន ខណៈ​​​ការ​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​ខិត​​​ជិត​​​ចូល​​​មក​​​ដល់​​​នោះ​​​ គឺ​​​ “ ប្រសិន​​​បើ​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​កម្ពុជា​​​​​​​​​អាណិត​​​ ចូល​​​ចិត្ត​​​ ស្រឡាញ់​​​ និង​​​ពេញ​​​ចិត្ត​​​ការ​​​ដឹក​​​នាំ​​​របស់​​​ខ្ញុំ​​​ ហើយ​​​មាន​​​ទំនុក​​​ចិត្ត​​​លើ​​​ខ្ញុំ​​​ គឺ​​​ ហ៊ុន សែន ក្នុង​​​ការ​​​ដឹក​​​នាំ​​​ប្រទេស​​​ឆ្ពោះ​​​ទៅ​​​រក​​​សុខ​​​សន្ដិភាព​​​ ស្ថិរភាព​​​ និង​​​ការ​​​អភិវឌ្ឍ​​​ដូច​​​សព្វ​​​ថ្ងៃ​​​នោះ​​​ សូម​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​ឲ្យ​​​គណបក្សប្រជា​​​ជន​​​កម្ពុជា​​​”។

ខណៈ​​​គណបក្សប្រជា​​​ជន​​​កម្ពុជា​​​ទទួល​​​បាន​​​ជ័យ​​​ជម្នះ​​​ក្នុង​​ ​ការ​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​កាល​​​ពី​​​ថ្ងៃ​​​អាទិត្យ​​​នោះ​​​ គណបក្ស​​​នេះ​​​បាន​​​បាត់​​​បង់​​​អាសនៈ​​​យ៉ាង​​​ច្រើន​​​។ វា​​​គឺ​​​ជា​​​លទ្ធផល​​​ដែល​​​ក្រុម​​​អ្នក​​​វិភាគ​​​នយោបាយ​​​និយាយ​​​ថា អាច​​​ឆ្លុះ​​​បញ្ចាំង​​​ពី​​​ការ​​​ធ្លាក់​​​ចុះ​​​នូវ​​​ការ​​​គាំទ្រ​​​ និង​​​ប្រជា​​​ប្រិយភាព​​​របស់​​​លោក ហ៊ុន សែន​​​ ក្នុង​​​នាម​​​ជា​​​នាយក​​​រដ្ឋ​​​មន្ត្រី​​​ដែល​​​បាន​​​​​​កាន់​​​អំណាច​​ ​អស់​​​រយៈ​​​ពេល​​​ជាយូរ​​​មក​​​ហើយ​​​នោះ​​​។
ទោះ​​​ជា​​យ៉ាងណា​​​ មន្ត្រី​​​នៅក្នុង​​​ជួរ​​​គណ​​​បក្ស​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​កម្ពុជា​​​ បា​​​ន​​​ឲ្យ​​​ដឹង​​​កាល​​​ពី​​​ថ្ងៃ​​​ម្សិលមិញ​​​ថា ទោះ​​​បី​​​ជា​​​មាន​​​លទ្ធផល​​​បែប​​​នេះ​​​ក៏ដោយ​​​ ក៏​​​លោក ហ៊ុន សែន មិន​​​ប្រឈម​​​នឹង​​​ការ​​​​​​ដក​​​ចេញ​​​ពី​​​បេក្ខភាព​​​​​​នាយក​​​រដ្ឋ​​ ​មន្ត្រី​​​​​​របស់​​​គណបក្ស​​​នេះ​​​ទេ​​​។

លោក ឈាង វុន អ្នក​​​នាំ​​​ពាក្យ​​​រដ្ឋ​​​សភា​​​​​​មក​​​ពី​​​គណបក្ស​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​ បាន​​​ប្រាប់​​​ក្រុម​​​អ្នក​​​យក​​​ព័ត៌មាន​​​នៅ​​​សណ្ឋាគារ​​​ភ្នំពេញ​​​ កាល​​​ពី​​​ម្សិល​​​មិញ​​​ថា “ ជ័យ​​​ជម្នះ​​​នេះ​​​មាន​​​ន័យ​​​ថា ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​ទទួល​​​យក​​​សម្ដេច​​​នាយក​​​រដ្ឋ​​​មន្ត្រី​​​ ហ៊ុន សែន ធ្វើ​​​ជា​​​អ្នក​​​ដឹក​​​នាំ​​​ប្រទេស​​​”។

លោក ផៃ​​​ ស៊ីផាន អ្នក​​​នាំ​​​ពាក្យ​​​ទី​​​ស្ដីការ​​​គណៈ​​​រដ្ឋ​​​មន្ត្រី​​​ ក៏​​​បាន​​​លើក​​​ឡើង​​​កាល​​​ពី​​​ថ្ងៃ​​​ម្សិលមិញ​​​ផង​​​ដែរ​​​ថា លទ្ធផល​​​នៃ​​​ការ​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​នេះ​​​ “ មិន​​​ឆ្លុះ​​​បញ្ចាំង​​​ពី​​​ប្រជា​​​ប្រិយភាព​​​របស់​​​​​​សម្ដេច​​​ ហ៊ុន សែន ទេ”។ ចំនួន​​​ [ អាសនៈ​​​របស់​​​គណបក្សប្រជា​​​ជន​​​នៅ​​​សភា​​​] នៅ​​​តែ​​​ស​​​បញ្ជាក់​​​ឲ្យ​​​ឃើញ​​​ថា សម្ដេច​​​ ហ៊ុន សែន នៅ​​​តែ​​​មាន​​​ប្រជា​​​ប្រិយភាព​​​ខ្លាំង​​​ ហើយ​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​ភាគ​​​ច្រើន​​​ត្រូវ​​​ការ​​​ឲ្យ​​​សម្ដេច​​​ដឹក​​​នាំ​ ​​ប្រទេស​​​” ដោយ​​​លោក​​​បាន​​​បន្ថែម​​​ថា លោក ហ៊ុន សែន បាន​​​ដើ​​​រ​​​តួនាទី​​​នាំ​​​មុខ​​​រួច​​​​​​ហើយ​​​ក្នុ​​​ងការ​​​ធានា​​​ ពី​​​ជោគ​​​ជ័យ​​​​​​សម្រាប់​​​គណបក្ស​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​កម្ពុជា​​​នៅ​​​ពេល​​ ​អនាគត​​​។

លោក​​​មាន​​​ប្រសាសន៍​​​បន្ត​​​ថា “ គណ​​​បក្ស​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​​​​​​​បាន​​​នាំ​​​មុខ​​​មួយ​​​ជំហាន​​​រួច​​​ទៅ​ ​​ហើយ​​​។ យុវជន​​​គឺ​​​ជា​​​​​​ឥទ្ធិពល​​​កំពុង​​​កើន​​​ឡើង​​​​​​នៅ​​​ក្នុង​​​ ប្រទេស​​​កម្ពុជា​​​។ ក្នុង​​​នាម​​​គណបក្ស​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​កម្ពុជា​​​ យើង​​​យល់​​​ថា យើង​​​អាច​​​រៀប​​​ចំ​​​គណ​​​បក្ស​​​នេះ​​​សម្រាប់​​​​​​យុវជន​​​ជំនាន់​​​ ថ្មី​​​តាម​​​រយៈ​​​ការ​​​រក្សា​​​កំណើន​​​សេដ្ឋកិច្ច​​ យុត្តិធម៌​​​សង្គម និង​​​ការ​​​ធ្វើ​​​សមាហរណកម្ម​​​​​​​​​ទៅ​​​ក្នុង​​​ទី​​​ផ្សារនៅ​​​​​​ ក្នុង​​​តំបន់​​​ និង​​​ពិភព​​​លោក​​​”។
ប៉ុន្តែ លោក កឹម ឡី អ្នក​​​វិភាគ​​​នយោបាយ​​​ និង​​​ជា​​​អ្នក​​​ស្រាវ​​​ជ្រាវ​​​នៅឯ​​​​​​មជ្ឈមណ្ឌល​​​សិទ្ធិ​​​មនុស្ស​​ ​កម្ពុជា​​​​​​ បាន​​​លើក​​​ឡើង​​​ថា លទ្ធផល​​​នៃ​​​ការ​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​កាល​​​ពី​​​ថ្ងៃ​​​អាទិត្យ​​​នេះ​​​ស្ដែង​ ​​ឲ្យ​​​ឃើញ​​​ថា ការ​​​គាំ​​​ទ្រ​​​រដ្ឋាភិបាល​​​លោក​​​ ហ៊ុន សែន បាន​​​ធ្លាក់​​​ចុះ​​​ហើយ​​​។ លោក កឹម ឡី ​​​មាន​​​ប្រសាសន៍​​​ថា “ លទ្ធផល​​​នេះ​​​បង្ហាញ​​​ថា​​​ លោក​​​នាយក​​​រដ្ឋ​​​មន្ត្រី​​​ ហ៊ុន សែន ធ្លាក់​​​ចុះ​​​ប្រជាប្រិយភាព​​​ខ្លាំង​​​ណាស់​​​។ ហើយ​​​របៀប​​​ដឹក​​​នាំ​​​របស់​​​លោក​​​ ព្រម​​​ទាំង​​​ការ​​​គ្រប់​​​គ្រង​​​​​​កំណែ​​​ទម្រង់​​​រដ្ឋាភិបាល​​​មិ​​​ ន​​​បាន​​​ឆ្លុះ​​​បញ្ចាំង​​​ពី​​​ស្ថាន​​​ភាព​​​ពិត​​​ប្រាកដពាក់​​​ព័ន្ធ​ ​​នឹង​​​​​​តម្រូវ​​​ការ​​​របស់​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​កម្ពុជា​​​ទេ​​​”។

លោក ខាលីល ថេយ័រ (Carlyle Thayer) អ្នក​​​ជំនាញ​​​ផ្នែក​​​តំបន់​​​អាស៊ី​​​អាគ្នេយ៍​​​នៅ​​​សាលា​​​បណ្ឌិត​​​ សភា​​​កង​​​កម្លាំង​​​ការ​​​ពារជាតិ​​​អូស្ត្រាលី​​​ បាន​​​លើក​​​ឡើង​​​ថា ការ​​​ធ្លាក់​​​ចុះ​​​​​​យ៉ាង​​​ខ្លាំង​​​នូវ​​​ប្រជា​​​ប្រិយភាព​​​​​​របស់ ​​​លោក ហ៊ុន សែន ដូច​​​ដែល​​​ត្រូវ​​​បាន​​​បង្ហាញ​​​តាម​​​រយៈ​​​ការ​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​កាល​​ ​ពី​​​ថ្ងៃ​​​អាទិត្យ​​​នេះ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​នឹង​​​ដាក់​​​សម្ពាធ​​​ថ្មី​​​​​​ឲ្យ​​​លោក ហ៊ុន សែន សិក្សា​​​ពី​​​កំណែ​​​ទម្រង់​​​​​​​​​របស់​​​គណបក្ស​​​សង្គ្រោះ​​​ជាតិ​​​ និង​​​ពី​​​សមាជិក​​​​​​ក្នុង​​​បក្ស​​​របស់​​​លោក​​​ផ្ទាល់​​​។

ទោះ​​​ជា​​​យ៉ាង​​​ណា  លោក ថេយ័រ បាន​​​សម្ដែង​​​មន្ទិល​​​មិន​​​ដឹង​​​ថា តើ​​​លោក​​​ ហ៊ុន សែន មាន​​​ឆន្ទៈ​​​ក្នុង​​​ការ​​​ធ្វើ​​​កំណែ​​​ទម្រង់​​​រដ្ឋាភិបាល​​​​​​ដែល​​ ​លោក​​​បា​​​ន​​​គ្រប់​​​គ្រង​​​អស់​​​រយៈ​​​ពេល​​​ជា​​​យូរ​​​មក​​​ហើយ​​​ ឬ​​​អត់​​​នោះ​​​ទេ​​​។ លោក​​​បាន​​​មាន​​​ប្រសាសន៍​​​ថា “ ខ្ញុំ​​​មិន​​​គិត​​​ថា ហ៊ុន សែន ជា​​​ប្រភេទ​​​មនុស្ស​​​ដែល​​​​​​ហ៊ាន​​​ក្រោក​​​ឈរ​​​ឡើង​​​និយាយ​​​ថា៖ ខ្ញុំ​​​បានធ្វើ​​​ខុស​​​ ហើយ​​​យើង​​​ត្រូវ​​​កែកុន​​​​​​វិញ​​​​​​  នោះទេ​”។​​​​​

លោក​​​ ថេយ័រ បាន​​​បន្ត​​​ថា “ ខ្ញុំ​​​មិន​​​គិត​​​ថា ​​​រដ្ឋាភិបាល​​​លោក ហ៊ុន សែន នឹង​​​ឆ្លើយ​​​តប​​​ចំពោះ​​​ការ​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​នោះ​​​តាម​​​រយៈ​​​ការ​​​ ធ្វើ​​​កំណែ​​​ទម្រង់​​​ឡើយ​​​។ ពួក​​​គេ​​​នឹង​​​មិន​​​​​​ធ្វើ​​​កំណែ​​​ទម្រង់​​​​​​លែង​​​ឲ្យ​​​មាន​​​ ការ​​​ចាប់​​​យក​​​ដី​​​ធ្លី​​​ និង​​​​​​​​​អំពើ​​​ពុក​​​រលួយ​​​ទេ​​​​​​។ កំណែ​​​ទម្រង់​​​ គឺ​​​មិន​​​អាច​​​ទៅ​​​រួច​​​ទេ​​​ ព្រោះ​​​មាន​​​ផល​​​ប្រយោជន៍​​​ច្រើន​​​ណាស់​​​ដែល​​​ត្រូវ​​​បាត់​​​បង់​​​ ”។

ក៏​​​ប៉ុន្តែ​​​ លោក ថេយ័រ បាន​​​លើក​​​ឡើង​​​ថា  ប្រសិន​​​បើ​​​គណបក្ស​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​កម្ពុជា​​​មើល​​​ឃើញ​​​ថា ភាព​​​ទោមនស្ស​​​របស់​​​​​​ប្រជាជន​​​ចំពោះ​​​លោក ហ៊ុន សែន បន្ត​​​កើន​​​ឡើង​​​ក្នុង​​​រយៈ​​​ពេល​​​​​ប្រាំ​​​ឆ្នាំ​​​បន្ទាប់​​​នោះ​​ ​ គណបក្ស​​​នេះ​​​ប្រហែល​​​ជា​​​គ្មាន​​​ជម្រើស​​​ណា​​​ផ្សេង​​​ក្រៅ​​​ពី​​​ ស្វះ​​​ស្វែង​​​រក​​​ផ្លូវ​​​ផ្សេង​​​សម្រាប់​​​ដើរ​​​ឡើយ​​​។
លោក​​​បាន​​​​ថ្លែង​​​​​​ថា “ ​​​ [​​​គណបក្ស​​​ប្រជាជន​​​] បារម្ភ​​​ខ្លាច​​​​​​ការ​​​ផ្លាស់​​​ប្ដូរ​​​បង្ក​​​ឲ្យ​​​មាន​​​អស្ថិរភាព​ ​​ ដូច្នេះ​​​ពួក​​​គេ​​​ចង់​​​ធ្វើ​​​កំណែ​​​ទម្រង់​​​ក្នុង​​​កម្រិត​​​ អប្បបរមា​​​​។ ប៉ុន្តែ​​​​​​ពេល​​​ការ​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​លើក​​​ក្រោយ​​​មក​​​ដល់​​​ ពួក​​​គេ​​​អាច​​​នឹង​​​ភ្ញាក់​​​ខ្លួន​​​​​​ថា ការ​​​រក្សា​​​អ្វី​​​ៗ​​​ឲ្យ​​​​​​នៅ​​​ដដែល​​​​​​ គឺ​​​ជា​​​ការ​​​នាំ​​​មក​​​នូវ​​​ភាព​​​បរាជ័យ​​​​​​​​សម្រាប់​​​ខ្លួន​​​ ឯង​​​”។ លោក​​​បាន​​​បន្ថែម​​​ថា “ ក្នុង​​​ជួរ​​​គណបក្ស​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​កម្ពុជា​​​ផ្ទាល់​​​ អ្នក​​​ដែល​​​ស្និទ្ធ​​​នឹង​​​អ្នក​​​​​​កាន់​​​អំណាច​​​ក្នុង​​​បក្ស​​​ ប្រហែល​​​ជា​​​ត្រូវ​​​ប្រាប់​​​មេ​​​ដឹក​​​នាំ​​​របស់​​​ខ្លួន​​​ថា ​​​គាត់​​​គ្មាន​​​សម្លៀក​​​បំពាក់​​​ជាប់​​​ខ្លួនទេ​​​​​​”។

លោក ចន ស៊ីយ៉ូស៊ីយ៉ារី (John Ciorciari) អ្នក​​​ជំនាញ​​​ផ្នែក​​​តំបន់​​​អាស៊ីអាគ្នេយ៍​​​ នៅ​​​មហា​​​វិទ្យាល័យ​​​គោល​​​នយោបាយ​​​សាធារណៈ​​​ ជើ​​​រ៉ល​​​ អ ហ្វដ (Gerald R. Ford  School of Public Policy) នៃ​​​សាកល​​​វិទ្យាល័យ​​​មីឈីហ្គែន (Michigan) បាន​​​លើក​​​ឡើង​​​ថា លោក ហ៊ុន សែន ​​​និង​​​គណ​​​បក្ស​​​​​​ប្រជា​​​ជ​​ន​​​កម្ពុជា​​​បាន​​​វេញ​​​ចូល​​​គ្នា​ ​​ជា​​​ធ្លុង​​​មួយ​​​មិន​​​អាច​​​បំបែក​​​ចេញ​​​ពី​​​គ្នា​​​បាន​​​ឡើយ ពោល​​​គឺ​​​ជោគ​​​វាសនា​​​របស់​​​គណ​​​​​​បក្ស​​​នេះ​​​ផ្អែក​​​លើ​​​​​​ បេក្ខភាព​​​ជា​​​នាយក​​​រដ្ឋ​​​មន្ត្រី​​​​​​របស់​​​លោក ហ៊ុន សែន។

​​​​​​​​​លោក​​​បាន​​​មាន​​​​​​ប្រសាសន៍​​​ថា  “ គណបក្ស​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​កម្ពុជា​​​ និង​​​លោក ហ៊ុន សែន គឺ​​​ប្រៀប​​​ដូច​​​ជា​​​​​​មនុស្ស​​​តែ​​​ម្នាក់​​​ ដូច្នេះ​​​ការ​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​គឺ​​​ប្រៀប​​​ដូច​​​ជា​​​ការ​​​ធ្វើ​​​ប្រជា ​​​មតិអំ​​​​​​ពី​​​ការ​​​ដឹក​​​នាំ​​​របស់​​​លោក​​​ផង​​​ និង​​​អំ​​​ពី​​​គណបក្ស​​​នេះ​​​ផង​​​។ ប៉ុន្តែ​​​ទោះ​​​បីជា​​​សមាជិក​​​មួយ​​​ចំនួន​​​របស់​​​គណ​​​បក្ស​​​ប្រជា​​ ​ជន​​​ចាត់​​​ទុក​​​លទ្ធផល​​​នៃ​​​ការ​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​នេះ​​​ថា ជា​​​ការ​​​ឆ្លុះ​​​បញ្ចាំង​​​មិន​​​ល្អ​​​ពី​​​មេ​​​ដឹក​​​នាំ​​​របស់​​​ ខ្លួ​​​ន​​​ក៏​​​ដោយ​​​ ក៏​​​វា​​​មិន​​​ច្បាស់​​​សោះ​​​ឡើយ​​​ថា តើ​​​នឹង​​​មាន​​​ភាគី​​​​​​ប្រឆាំង​​​ណា​​​មួយមាន​​​​​​លទ្ធភាព​​​ទទួល​​​ បាន​​​ការ​​​គាំ​​​ទ្រ​​​ល្ម​​​ម​​​នឹង​​​ប្រជែង​​​​​យក​​​បេក្ខភាព​​​ជាមួយ ​​​នាយក​​​រដ្ឋ​​​មន្ត្រី​​​រូប​​​នេះ​​​​​​ឬអត់​​​នោះ​​​”។

លោក រស់​​​ ចិន្ត្រាបុត្រ​​​ សមាជិក​​​​​​រាជ​​​បណ្ឌិត​​​សភា​​​កម្ពុជា​​​ និង​​​ជា​​​ទី​​​ប្រឹក្សា​​​របស់​​​លោក​​​នាយក​​​​​​រដ្ឋ​​​មន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន បាន​​​លើក​​​ឡើងថា គឺ​​​គណ​​​បក្ស​​​សង្គ្រោះ​​​ជាតិ​​​ដែល​​​បាន​​​ដៅ​​​ចំ​​​​​​លោក​​​ ហ៊ុន សែន ក្នុង​​​ការ​​​អំពាវ​​​នាវ​​​រ​​​បស់​​​ខ្លួន​​​​​​ឲ្យ​​​មាន​​​ការ​​​ “ ផ្លាស់​​​ប្ដូរ​​​” អំឡុង​​​យុទ្ធ​​​នាការ​​​ឃោសនា​​​រក​​​សំឡេ​​​ង​​​ឆ្នោត​​​។
លោក​​​បាន​​​មាន​​​ប្រសាសន៍​​​ថា “ គណបក្ស​​​ប្រឆាំង​​​​​​បាន​​​អំពាវ​​​នាវ​​​ឲ្យ​​​មាន​​​ការ​​​ផ្លាស់​​​ ប្ដូរ​​​​​​ដោយ​​​សំដៅ​​​លើ​​​សម្ដេច​​​នាយក​​​រដ្ឋ​​​មន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន មិន​​​មែន​​​លើគណបក្ស​​​នយោបាយ​​​ទេ​​​។ វា​​​ហាក់​​​ដូច​​​ជា​​​ថា ការ​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​នេះ​​​មិន​​​មែន​​​​​​ដើម្បី​​​ជ្រើ​​​ស​​​រើស​​​ គណបក្ស​​​នយោបាយ​​​ឡើយ​​​​​​ ប៉ុន្តែ​​​ដើម្បី​​​ប្រជែង​​​យក​​​តំណែង​​​នាយក​​​រដ្ឋ​​​​​​មន្ត្រី​​​​​​​ ​​ទៅ​​​វិញ​​​ទេ​​​” ដោយ​​​លោក​​​បាន​​​បន្ថែម​​​ថា លទ្ធផល​​​នៃ​​​ការ​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​នេះ​​​ គឺ​​​ជា​​​ភ័ស្តុតាង​​​បញ្ជាក់​​​ពី​​​ការ​​​បន្ត​​​គាំ​​​ទ្រ​​​លោក ហ៊ុន សែន។

លោក ផាវីន ឆាឆាវ៉ាល់ប៉ុងពុន (Pavin Chachavalpongpun) សាស្ត្រាចារ្យ​​​រង​​​នៅ មជ្ឈមណ្ឌល​​​សម្រាប់​​​ការ​​​សិក្សា​​​ពី​​​តំបន់​​​អាស៊ី​​​អាគ្នេយ៍​​​  (Center for Southeast Asian Studies)  នៃ​​​សាកល​​​វិទ្យាល័យ​​​ក្យូតុ (Kyoto University)  បាន​​​លើក​​​ឡើង​​​ថា លទ្ធផល​​​នៃ​​​ការ​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​នេះ​​​ មិន​​​មែន​​​គ្រាន់​​​តែ​​​ជា​​​​​​​​​​​​ការ​​​ឆ្លុះ​​​បញ្ចាំ​​​ង​​​​​​ពី ​​​ការ​​​ដឹក​​​នាំ​​​របស់​​​លោក ហ៊ុន សែន​​​ ប៉ុណ្ណោះ​​​ទេ ប៉ុន្តែ​​​វាក៏​​​ជា​​​​​​សារ​​​ពញាក់​​​ស្មារតី​​​​​​មួយ​​​ថា ​​​អ្នក​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​នៅ​​​កម្ពុជា​​​លែង​​​ជឿ​​​លើ​​​ការ​​​សន្យា​​របស់ ​​​គណ​​​បក្ស​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​​​​អំពី​​​ការ​​​រក្សា​​​ស្ថិរភាព​​​ និង​​​ការ​​​អភិវឌ្ឍ​​​​​​ជាមូល​​​ដ្ឋាន​​​ទៀត​​​ហើយ​​​។

លោក​​​បាន​​​មាន​​​ប្រសាសន៍​​​ថា “ ខ្ញុំ​​​គិត​​​ថា លទ្ធផល​​​នេះ​​​មិន​​​មែន​​​គ្រាន់តែ​​​ឆ្លុះ​​​បញ្ចាំង​​​ពី​​​ការ​​​យល់​​ ​ឃើញ​​​របស់​​​អ្នក​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​ចំពោះ​​​ការ​​​ដឹក​​​នាំ​​​របស់​​​លោក ហ៊ុន សែន ប៉ុណ្ណោះ​​​ទេ​​​​​​​​​ តែ​​​​​​ក៏​​​បង្ហាញ​​​ពី​​​កម្រិត​​​នៃ​​​ការ​​​ផ្លាស់​​​ប្ដូរ​​​ទិដ្ឋភាព ​​​​​​​​​​​​នយោបាយ​​​នៅ​​​កម្ពុជា​​​ផង​​​ដែរ​​​​​​​​​” ដោយ​​​លោក​​​បាន​​​បន្ថែម​​​ថា លោក ហ៊ុន សែន មិន​​​ទំនង​​​ថា នឹង​​​ធ្វើ​​​សម្បទាន​​ច្រើន​​​​​​​​​​​​ដែល​​​អាច​​​​​​ធ្វើ​​​ឲ្យ​​​លោក​​ ​ប្រឈម​​​នឹង​​​ការ​​​របូត​​​អំណាច​​​ពី​​​ដៃ​​​ទេ​​​។
លោក ឆាឆាវ៉ាល់ប៉ុងពុន បាន​​​បន្ត​​​ថា “ ជា​​​ការ​​​ឆ្លើយ​​​តប​​​ចំពោះ​​​ការ​​​ធ្លាក់​​​ចុះ​​​នូវ​​​ការ​​​គាំទ្រ​ ​​ចំពោះ​​​គណបក្ស​​​របស់​​​ខ្លួន​​​ គណបក្ស​​​​​​កំពុង​​​កាន់​​​អំណាច​​​នេះ​​​ចាំ​​​បាច់​​​ត្រូវ​​​ដឹក​​​នាំ​ ​​ការ​​​ធ្វើ​​​កំណែ​​​ទម្រង់​​​នយោបាយ​​​​​​តាម​​​រយៈ​​​ការ​​​ពង្រឹង​​​ ស្ថាប័ន​​​ប្រជា​​​ធិបតេយ្យ​​​។ ប៉ុន្តែ​​​វា​​​ប្រហែល​​​ជា​​​តម្រូវ​​​ឲ្យ​​​មាន​​​ការ​​​លះបង់​​​ពី​​​លោក ហ៊ុន សែន ដែល​​​មិន​​​ទំនង​​​ថា អាច​​​ទៅ​​​រួច​​​ឡើយ​​​។

លោក ខៀវ កាញារីទ្ធ​​​ រដ្ឋ​​​មន្ត្រី​​​ក្រសួង​​​ព័ត៌មាន​​​​​​ដែល​​​បាន​​​បញ្ចេញ​​​លទ្ធផល​​​បឋម ​​​នៃ​​​ការ​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​ដែល​​​បង្ហាញ​​​ថា បក្ស​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​បាន​​​បាត់​​​បង់​​​២២​​​អាសនៈ​​​នៅ​​​សភា​​​នោះ​​​ បាន​​​ហៅ​​​ការ​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​នេះ​​​ថា ជា​​​ “ សារ​​​ពញាក់​​​ស្មារតី​​​សម្រាប់​​​គណបក្ស​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​កម្ពុជា​​​”  ប៉ុន្តែ​​​លោក​​​បានសន្មត​​​​​​ថា “ យុទ្ធ​​​នាការ​​​​​​​​​រើស​​​អើង​​​ជាតិ​​​សាសន៍​​​” និង​​​ “ ការ​​​សន្យា​​​ខ្យល់​​​” ពី​​​បក្ស​​​ប្រឆាំង​​​ គឺ​​​ជា​​​មូល​​​ហេតុ​​​​​​នៅ​​​ពី​​​ក្រោយ​​​ជ័យ​​​ជម្នះ​​​​​​ក្នុង​​​ការ ​​​បោះឆ្នោត​​​នេះ​​។
លោក​​​បាន​​​លើក​​​ឡើង​​​តាម​​​ហ្វេសប៊ុក​​​​​​ថា “ ទោះ​​​បី ជា​​​មាន​​​ការ​​​ធ្វើ​​​យុទ្ធនាការ​​​រើ​​​ស​​​អើង​​​ជាតិ​​​សាសន៍​​​… ទោះ​​​បី​​​ជា​​​មាន​​​ការ​​​សន្យា​​​ខ្យល់​​​ក៏​​​ដោយ​​​ ក៏​​​អ្នក​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​នៅតែ​​ជ្រើ​​​ស​​​រើស​​​​​​គណបក្ស​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​ ​​កម្ពុជា​។ ក្នុ​​​ង​​​ពេល​​​ជា​​​មួយ​​​គ្នា​​​នេះ​​​ វា​​​ក៏​​​ជា​​​សារ​​​ពញាក់​​​ស្មារត​​​ី​​​​​​គណ​​​បក្ស​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​ក​ ​​ម្ពុជា​​​​​​កុំឲ្យ​​​ភ្លេច​​​ខ្លួន​​​។ យើង​​​ចាំ​​​បាច់​​​ត្រូវ​​​កែ​​​សម្រួល​​​​​​ការ​​​ងារ​​​របស់​​​យើង​​​ឲ្យ ​​​មាន​​​ភាព​​​ប្រសើ​​​រឡើង​​​​​​”។ លោក​​​បាន​​​បន្ថែម​​​ថា “ ប៉ុន្តែ ចំណុច​​​ខ្លាំង​​​របស់​​​គណបក្ស​​​ប្រជា​​​ជន​​​កម្ពុជា​​​គឺ​​​ថា គណបក្ស​​​នេះ​​​មាន​​សមត្ថភាព​​​​​​សម្រប​​​ខ្លួន​​​ទៅ​​​នឹង​​​ការ​​​ ផ្លាស់​​​ប្ដូរ​​​ ហើយ​​​ដឹង​​​ពី​​​វិធី​​​សាស្ត្រ​​​ក្នុង​​​ការ​​​ទាញ​​​យក​​​ផល​​​ប្រយោជន៍ ​​​ពី​​​ស្ថាន​​​ភាព​​​ដែល​​​លំបាក​​​បំផុត​​​”។

លោក ដេវីដ ឈែនល័រ (David Chandler) អ្នក​​​សិក្សា​​​ពី​​​ប្រវត្តិសាស្ត្រ​​​កម្ពុជា​​​ បាន​​​លើក​​​ឡើង​​​ថា ការ​សម្រប​​​ខ្លួន​​​បែប​​​នេះ​​​ក៏​​​ប្រហែល​​​ជា​​​មាន​​​ន័យ​​​ថា ខណៈ​​​ដែល​​​លោក​​​ ហ៊ុន សែន មិន​​​ប្រឈម​​​នឹង​​​ការ​​​ដក​​​បេក្ខភា​​​ព​​​ជា​​​នាយក​​​រដ្ឋ​​​ មន្ត្រីក្នុង​​​ពេល​​​ខ្លី​​​នោះ​​​ លទ្ធផ​​​ល​​​នៃ​​​កា​​​រ​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​​​​ថ្មី​​​បំផុត​​​នេះ​​​អាច​​​ នឹង​​​ជំរុញ​​​ឲ្យ​​​លោក​​​ធ្វើ​​​សម្បទាន​​​ជាមួយ​​​គូ​​​ប្រជែង​​​នយោបាយ​ ​​របស់​​​លោក​​​ដើម្បី​​​ធ្វើ​​​តាម​​​ការ​​​សន្យា​​​​​​ស្ដី​​​ពី​​​ការ​​​ បន្ត​​​កាន់​​​​​​អំណាច​​​រយៈ​​​ពេល​​​ប៉ុន្មាន​​​ទសវត្សរ៍​​​ទៀត​​​។

លោក​​​​​​មាន​​​ប្រសាសន៍​​​​​​ថា “ លទ្ធផល​​​នៃ​​​ការ​​​​​​បោះ​​​ឆ្នោត​​​​​​នេះ​​​អាច​​​នឹង​​​ពន្លឿន​​​ការ​​ ​ចាក​​​ចេញ​​​​​​ពី​​​អំណាច​​​នៅ​​​អាយុ​​​៧៤​​​ឆ្នាំ​​​ដូច​​​ការ​​​សន្យា​ ​​ [របស់​​​លោក ហ៊ុន សែន]។ ខ្ញុំ​​​ហ៊ាន​​​និយាយ​​​ថា អ្វី​​​ៗ​​​គឺ​​​អាស្រ័យ​​​លើ​​​អ្វី​​​ដែល​​​នឹង​​​កើត​​​ឡើង​​​ក្នុង​​​ រយៈ​​​ពេល​​​ប៉ុន្មាន​​​សប្ដាហ៍​​​បន្ទាប់​​​នេះ​​​ មិ​​​ន​​​មែន​​​​​​​​ការ​បែង​​​ចែក​​​អំណាច​​​ទេ​​​ ប៉ុន្តែ​​​គឺ​​​ថា តើ​​​គាត់​​​មាន​​​ចិត្ត​​​ផ្លាស់​​​ប្ដូរ​​​ទម្រង់​​​ការ​​​ងារ​​​ដើម្បី​​ ​ទប់​​​ទល់​​​នឹង​​​សម្ពាធ​​​ដែល​​​គណបក្ស​​​ប្រឆាំង​​​បាន​​​ដាក់​​​លើ​​​ គណបក្ស​​​ប្រជាជន​​​កម្ពុជា​​​ ដែរ​​​ឬក៏​​អត់​​​”៕

(រាយការណ៍​​​បន្ថែម​​​ដោយ Simon Marks និង ផន បុប្ផា)
ប្រែ​​​សម្រួល​​​ដោយ ភួន ច័ន្ទសេរីវុធ

Cambodia:CNRP Will Be Troublesome for CPP-Led Assembly

By - July 30, 2013

Despite suffering a major hit in the parliamentary election Sunday, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) will hold on to a majority of National Assembly seats for another five years should unofficial results released by the information minister stand.

Under the country’s Constitution, a simple majority is all that is needed to form a government and pass most laws.

But having relieved the CPP of its supermajority in Parliament, the opposition could make life very hard for Prime Minister Hun Sen, and for the first time turn the CPP-led Parliament into something more than a rubber stamp, analysts and legal experts said Monday.
Now they have to deal with the opposition, they cannot do like before,” said Son Soubert, a former member of the country’s Con­stitutional Council, who recently allied with the opposition.
With 123 seats in the Assembly, the CPP needed only 62 lawmakers to form the next government and says it won 68.

But Mr. Soubert said the magic number is actually 82 seats. That’s how many lawmakers the Assembly needs just to hold a meeting. Without that quorum, he said, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), which won the other 55 seats on Sunday, could effectively hold the government to ransom.
“What the Rescue Party can do, they can refuse to join the National Assembly, and then the National Assembly cannot form,” he said.
 
The Constitution says a “valid” meeting of the Assembly needs at least two-thirds of all lawmakers, or 82 members. After Sunday’s elections, the CPP is 14 seats short of the constitutional requirement.
The National Election Committee (NEC) has yet to endorse the information minister’s poll results released on Sunday evening. The CNRP has rejected that result and is demanding an independent investigation into allegations of widespread polling irregularities that it says may have robbed it of an outright victory.

But should the preliminary numbers roughly hold, said independent political analyst Kem Ley, the opposition can use the CPP’s modest majority to its advantage to push through parts of its own agenda.

The CPP may technically have enough votes to pass most laws short of a constitutional amendment, he said, but it won’t be passing much if the opposition refuses to let the National Assembly even meet.

“If they can’t persuade the opposition to attend the meeting, how can they pass the law?” he said. “They need the quorum to meet, so the CPP will need to compromise with the CNRP.”

Mr. Ley said he expected the CPP to give way on some of the opposition’s key campaign pledges, including raising wages for civil servants and tightening immigration policies.

Besides the legislative math, he said, the CPP could no longer ignore the reality that a great many Cambodians no longer want what it has to offer.

“They realize the majority of the people want change, that the people are not happy with them, so even though they control all the ministries they will feel pressure to change.”
Sok Sam Oeun, a prominent lawyer who heads the Cambodian Defenders Project, a legal aid NGO, said the momentum was clearly with the opposition.

“Right now they have the power,” he said. “The opposition can use this as a chance for compromise, otherwise they will not join the meeting to form the Parliament.”
Even if the opposition does let the CPP form the next government, it can still keep the Assembly from meeting any time it wants.

“It has a lot of power,” Mr. Sam Oeun said. “It has the power to negotiate and it can control the legislature.”

The opposition will not have a shot at any ministries without entering into an official coalition with the CPP, which Mr. Sam Oeun said was unlikely after the uninspiring example set by Funcinpec during its coalitions with the CPP.

After the royalist party joined the CPP as a junior coalition partner following the national elections in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, it won some ministry posts but watched its political fortunes steadily dwindle, and on Sunday failed to win a single Assembly seat.
The CPP wants a coalition,” Mr. Sam Oeun said. “For example after forming the coalition with Funcinpec, it could destroy Funcinpec.”

He said the opposition was more likely to try to parlay its newfound power into some control over a few Assembly commissions, the powerful finance commission first and foremost.
CPP lawmaker Chheang Vun, whose own Assembly seat was cast into some doubt after the party’s modest showing on Sunday in his home province of Battambang, said the prospects are still good for his party.

“I don’t know yet if the two parties have plans to talk about their roles on the nine commissions, but I think the CNRP will have a role,” he said. “I think the two parties will negotiate.”
But Mr. Vun dismissed any talk of a coalition with the CNRP or compromising with it on any new laws.

“We cannot follow the policies of the opposition party because the party lost the election,” he said. “They have no right to demand anything because the people voted for the Cambodian People’s Party.”

But a CPP secretary of state, speaking on condition of ano­nymity, conceded that business as usual at the National Assembly was likely over.

“The CPP will have [a] more difficult time in the National Assembly,” he said. “There will be more political discussion, more stalemate.”

The former Constitutional Council member, Mr. Soubert, said the CPP simply could not ignore the will of so many Cambodians who voted for change, and the violence that erupted on election day should remind the ruling party of the growing frustration of the people.

“The results clearly show that their policies are not exactly what the people wanted,” he said. “If the people feel frustrated, there will be unrest.”
(Additional reporting by Aun Pheap)

Sunday, 28 July 2013

Ruling People's Party claims victory in Cambodian election

By Reuters, AFP
 
The Cambodian People's Party has claimed electoral victory. The long-serving Prime Minister's Hun Sen's party beat out seven other parties to retain control. 

Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party (PPP) announced its victory in parliamentary elections on Sunday, saying it had won 68 of 123 seats.

"We can say we've won this election," party spokesman Khieu Kanharith told the AFP news agency.
Despite winning overall, with 55 parliamentary seats going to the opposition, the ruling party lost more than 20 seats in Sunday's election.

The National Election Committee has not yet published figures, but the information minister posted the above figures on his Facebook page, noting that they were the final count.

The leader of the opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party's (CNRP) Sam Rainsy, had announced a victory earlier but later withdrew the claim.

Long reign
Hun Sen, 60, has been at the helm in Cambodia, one of the world's poorest countries, for nearly three decades. He has been accused in the past of committing human rights violations and silencing detractors.

He cast his own ballot on Sunday morning near his home in Takhmau in Kandal province. His opponent, Rainsy, returned to Cambodia this month after four years of self-imposed exile, voting near his party's office in Phnom Penh, where he was greeted by enthusiastic supporters.
Sunday marked the fifth general election for Cambodia since 1993.

Reports of irregularity
The count of paper ballots began shortly after the polls closed on Sunday afternoon, with political party representatives keeping an eye on the process.

There were some reports of voting irregularities on social media and from election watchdog groups, but more information is unlikely to emerge until Monday.
tm/dr (Reuters, AFP)

Cambodia election: Hun Sen's ruling party claims victory

BBC/News Asia
 
Cambodia's ruling party has claimed victory in Sunday's elections, but is likely to have a much reduced majority.

The Cambodian People's Party (CPP) led by Prime Minister Hun Sen said it had won at least 68 seats, compared with 55 seats for the main opposition.

Official results have not yet been released, but if these numbers are confirmed it would be the CPP's worst performance in 15 years. 

Hun Sen has been in power in Cambodia for nearly three decades.
His main challenge in the elections is from the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), led by Sam Rainsy, who recently came back to the country from self-imposed exile. 

More than nine million people were eligible to vote, and results are expected later on Sunday.
Unfair polls?
 
The CPP had been widely expected to win the election.

The party enjoys considerable support in the countryside - in part due to the economic growth achieved there after the devastation caused by the Khmer Rouge regime in the 1970s, which was responsible for one of the worst mass killings of the 20th Century.

Younger voters were thought more likely to look for a change and back Sam Rainsy and the opposition.

In 2010 Mr Rainsy was sentenced in absentia to 11 years in prison, on a series of charges he says were politically motivated.

Sam Rainsy, left, and Hun Sen at polling stations  
The party of Sam Rainsy, left, is Hun Sen's main challenge at the polls
 
But analysts say his return to the country early in July seems to have helped his party's cause.
Mr Rainsy's party has complained that the polls were fraudulent, with some voters unable to find their names on electoral lists.

Hun Sen, 60, was among the early voters on Sunday, casting his ballot shortly after polls opened near his home in Takmau, south of the capital Phnom Penh.

Sam Rainsy, 64, visited a polling station near his party's office in Phnom Penh where supporters greeted him enthusiastically.

"I am happy to see people flocking to vote," he said.


"I am happy to see people flocking to vote," he said.

Win, Lose or Share: Possible Scenarios After Election

By - July 27, 2013

On Sunday, the nation will largely divide into two camps: There will be those who think that the past 20 years have brought fi­nancial and political stability, infrastructure and new business opportunities—in short, overall development and prosperity. And there will be those who, despite the progress, see that the past two decades have brought rampant corruption, abuse of human rights, land grabbing and the concentration of pow­er and wealth in the political families of Mr. Hun Sen’s ruling CPP.

The vote is expected to go the CPP’s way, giving Prime Minister Hun Sen another five years in pow­er, but independent analysts still believe that anything can happen. 

–News Analysis
“Among Cambodian observers, there are some who have inside knowledge and some who are armchair observers. Some say the CPP will win with a reduced majority, some say they [CPP and Cambodia National Rescue Party] are running neck-to-neck,” independent political analyst Lao Mong Hay said.

According to Mr. Mong Hay and other observers, there are three possible outcomes of Sunday’s vote: The CPP scores big and increases its parliamentary seats from the 90 it currently holds; the CPP loses seats to the CNRP, but still wins enough to form a new gov­ernment alone; or, the electorate produces a stunning surprise and the CPP loses to the CNRP.

Scenario 1: The CPP expands from 90 seats.
According to observers, even if the CPP wins another majority on Sunday, the huge outpouring of support for the CNRP has given Mr. Hun Sen and his long-ruling party food for thought, and there is a chance they may slightly change their policies to cater to the demands of a young generation of voters, who have moved to the opposition.

As some of the most senior CPP leaders are in the advanced stages of old age, changes in the CPP’s leadership should to be expected, particularly among aging ministers.

According to Mr. Mong Hay, Chan Sarun, minister of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, is in a particularly weak position if the CPP chooses to reform, as he has failed to improve production quality or implement policies that could make Cambodia competitive within the Asean community, particularly as the Asean free trade area is scheduled for 2015.

Hor Namhong, minister of foreign affairs, is also in a weakened position, Mr. Mong Hay said, after Cambodia’s unsuccessful bid for a non-permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council last year. Cambodia’s human rights record, particularly its treatment of refugees, was cited as one reason the country was not seen as a viable contender for the Security Council seat.

“The foreign affairs diplomacy was not successful at all, our policy has been the worst” in recent years, Mr. Mong Hay said.

Beyond likely reform in the CPP’s inner circle, a landslide win for Mr. Hun Sen’s party will also be met with deep disappointment by millions of opposition voters, especially the youth who will be going to the polls for the first time on Sunday and believe that they can bring about “change.”
If their hopes are dashed by a large CPP victory, or if they feel that they were cheated of their votes because of election irregularities, violence could erupt on the streets, independent political analyst Kem Ley said.

“If the CPP wins with a majority, the community as a whole will say the elections’ results were prepared earlier and that the voter lists were manipulated. Especially the young will do something against the results and the government will use bans and everything they can against the Cambodian youth. There will be violence and there will be bloodshed,” Mr. Ley said.

Eventually, the protests will subside, and another five years under the CPP will follow.
“Basically, it will be the exact same as before,” with minor changes, Mr. Mong Hay said.

Scenario 2: The CPP loses seats, but maintains a majority to form a government.
Losing its vast majority of seats at the National Assembly would be a wake-up call for the CPP and would seriously harm the position of Mr. Hun Sen as the ruling party’s long-standing candidate for prime minister. He has long positioned himself as the CPP’s lone candidate for prime minister, and a strong vote for the opposition could be seen as a symbolic defeat for Mr. Hun Sen as the ruling party’s candidate.

While CPP election posters focus on the party’s leadership triumvirate of Mr. Hun Sen, National Assembly President Heng Samrin and Senate President Chea Sim, this year’s campaign is much more focused on the prime minister, Mr. Mong Hay said.

“There is a move away from the collective leadership. Now, the message is: Hun Sen is the effective leader. He has the power, it’s all in his hands,” he said.

With the personality cult Mr. Hun Sen has created around his persona, the stakes are high on Sunday.
“If he loses the majority, his po­sition in the party is questionable, he will be in the position of Malaysia’s [Prime Minister] Najib [Razak],” who lost a majority in May and will likely be challenged for leadership of his own party later this year, Mr. Mong Hay said.

Currently, Mr. Hun Sen’s role as prime minister is uncontested, not least because his family members, especially his children, have risen to senior positions within the CPP and other key facilities to help secure their father’s position, he said.

A loss of seats by the CPP, however, would mean a change of CPP policies, as they would have to give way to some of the opposition’s ideas owing to the CNRP’s increased role in the Assembly.
The CNRP, as they have promised, will be expected to introduce harsher laws on immigration, especially for Vietnamese citizens, and labor reforms.

If the CPP loses more than 20 seats, major reforms within the party are likely to take place to appease young voters, said Mr. Ley.

“There will be a move from a policy that favors the rich to a policy for the poor,” Mr. Ley said.
The CNRP gaining seats, but not winning a majority, would also help maintain peace, he said. Opposition supporters would be satisfied with the result and the CPP would not fear an outright loss of their traditional power.

“Everybody would accept the results, especially if the CNRP gets 50 or 60 seats [of 123], they would be satisfied,” Mr. Ley said.

Scenario 3: The CPP loses to the CNRP.
Currently the most unlikely of outcomes, a CNRP win on Sun­day is also the most fraught. Mr. Hun Sen warned on many occasions last month that an opposition win would reignite civil war, though who would fight this war, Mr. Hun Sen did not reveal.

While CPP officials have said that they would accept the outcome of the elections, political analysts interviewed for this article parted company on what would happen if the CNRP were to win.
Mr. Mong Hay said that the CNRP would form a government, but would fail to rule due to CPP interference and boycotts.

“Most civil servants are CPP, they would demand higher wages, better working conditions or say they are lacking resources to implement policies,” which, eventually, would lead to the collapse of the new government, he said.

Mr. Ley, however, painted a darker picture, saying that a win for the CNRP would be the “worst thing that could happen.”

The CPP, Mr. Ley said, would try to cling to power by using police and military—both loyal to the CPP—and Mr. Hun Sen’s personal bodyguard unit, which is estimated now to be about 10,000 men and is armed with the best and most sophisticated weaponry of any fighting unit in the country.
“They will safeguard him [Mr. Hun Sen]. He can use them anytime he wants,” Mr. Ley said.
“There will be chaos, the [CPP] government will hold on to their power and Cambodia will be in the same situation as Burma in 1990 when the [National League for Democracy] won and the military party arrested almost all politicians,” Mr. Ley predicted.

No matter the outcome, this Sun­day will set the course for the next five years, and in many ways, the election has already been historic.

For the first time, opposition supporters have openly spoken their minds and donned CNRP hats and T-shirts in public without fearing the same intimidation as during previous elections.
A young generation of voters as well as the educated and urban middle-class, who spread and access information through social networks have become politically engaged and expect more than just basic stability and an absence of war, Mr. Mong Hay said.

“The legitimacy of the [CPP] elders comes from the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge regime but there is a new society where more and more people have access to media and social networks. They are more articulate and more educated and have different expectations,” Mr. Mong Hay said.
In the long run, he added, power will not be concentrated in one party forever.

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