Kavi Chongkittavorn July 16, 2012 1:00 am
After the Asean foreign minister failed to issue the
joint communiqué last week, a frequently asked question has been: which
countries are holding Asean hostage?
There are multiple choices, please pick one or more: a) The Asean
claimants; b) The Asean non-claimants; c) The concurrent Asean Chair; d)
The US; e) China; and f) all of the above. Here are explanations for
each answer.
For the answer a), there are many reasons. Asean claimants are divided
and lacked unity - the grouping's weakest point. Vietnam, the
Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei seldom hold meetings among themselves
to discuss about their common strategies. Back in 1995 they used to back
and watch out for each others. As the national stakes are getting
higher, they are shrieking in their cooperation. However, when they deem
fit, they would use Asean as a front to counter external pressure. This
time around in Phnom Penh they went on their own different way
protecting their turfs.
For the first time in the Asean's 45-year history, the joint communiqué
was not release because there were too many details on the disputes in
South China Sea. Deep down, the foreign ministers from claimant members
all pushed for their own bottom lines. They were more resilient
previously. The Philippines wanted their dispute in the Scarborough
Shoal to be included in the final communiqué while Vietnam did not budge
pushing for its own version of the recent China's alleged violations of
its economic exclusive zone. Malaysia, one of the most critical voices
of Asean claimants in the past regarding the South China Sea, has been
missing in action this time. However, it insisted to add "another
shoals" followed the Philippines' request. Brunei was quiet and waiting
for its turn next year as the Asean chair.
Such divergent views provided an ideal opportunity for the Asean chair,
Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Namhong, to go for a kill and cut short
the whole debate. He proposed to the claimants that all of the incidents
raised by them should be referred collectively as "recent developments
in the South China Sea." Take it or leave it. Bang, bang, nothing came
out. It was very interesting why he was not in the mood to find a common
ground - the virtue normally displayed by all previous Asean chairs. At
the last minute, Philippine Foreign Minister Roberto de Rosario even
softened his wordings with an offer of just mentioning "the affected
shoal." Now the Asean leaders must be seriously pondering what would
happen when the region's longest reigning leader, Prime Minister Hun
Sen, chairs the November summit.
It was clear for those who opted for the answer b) that the
non-claimant countries are equally problematic apart from the Asean
chair. There are two kinds of non-claimants Asean countries - those who
are concerned parties and those who are not. The concerned parties are
Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand, and the rest are not. The trio wants
to see progress but now they are now caught in a dilemma as their views
and positions could impact on the future of Asean and the whole gamut of
Asean-China relations. Singapore stressed from time to time that as
concerned parties in the disputes both within the Asean and
international context it must be engaged to ensure freedom and safety of
the sea-lane of communications. So is Indonesia, which also wants Asean
to show solidarity overe the dispute. Thailand's position is a bit
tricky. It depends who is the "real" foreign minister - still very
confusing. These core members backed the issuance of a separate
statement on South China Sea at the ministerial meeting. But the idea
was later squashed as the Asean chair said that both China and the
Philippine held bilateral talks and the tension over the Scarborough
Shoal or Huanyan calmed down. So, there was no need for such a
statement. Thailand, which is a coordinating country for Asean-China
relations for 2012-2015, was lobbied hard by both China and the US for
support on their positions. There was even a suggestion that if there
was such a statement on South China Sea, both China and the Philippines
should be mentioned and deplored for heightening the tension in the
South China Sea.
Explanation for the choice c) must be that the Asean chair this year at
the Asean annual meeting is a veteran politician, Foreign minister Hor
Namhong. He knows exactly when to pull the trigger. This time he managed
to block the joint communiqué - it will be his legacy. His action upset
several foreign ministers attending the meeting. The reporters widely
quoted Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa's comment saying
that he was "disappointed" with the outcome and some Asean members acted
"irresponsibly." Of course, he did not mention Cambodia by name. It
remains to be seen how this will affect the role of Indonesia as
observers in the Thai-Cambodian dispute over the Preah Vihear/Khao
Praviharn Temple. There has been very little progress on this initiative
when Indonesia served as chair last year.
In the next two years, Brunei Darussalam and Myanmar will take up the
Asean chair after Cambodia in 2013 and 2014 respectively. Truth be told,
both countries supported Cambodia on the South China Sea issue.
Although Brunei is one of the Asean claimants, the oil-rich country has
never raised any voice or stated its position out right in this
squabbling. But Brunei and Myanmar have distinctive positions that the
overlapping claims should be settled among the claimants without useful
forces and through dialogues. Such views augur well with China's long
standing argument.
For the answer d), reasons are simple. Everybody knows the US has shown
more support for Asean even though it is cutting its defense budget in
the future. With troops dwindling down in Afghanistan, the US is
shifting the attention to the Asia-Pacific, which could be the next
battleground. The Pentagon plans to increase the troop level from the
current 50 per cent to 60 per cent in the next 10 years. Where will be
the extra ten per cent of American troops making their first home base
or rather rotational base? With the US becoming more enthusiastic in
association with the ongoing Asean efforts on security matters, some
Asean members are feeling gung-ho while others are feeling uneasy as
they know they could become prawns in the big power games. After all,
Southeast Asia will remain in China's backyard.
Those picked e) for an answer must be non-Chinese. Throughout the Asean
ministerial meeting, the Chinese media in China all blamed the
Philippines for holding Asean hostage and wondered aloud why Asean
allowed such a behavior. Interestingly, only few Chinese commentators
mentioned Vietnam though. The South China Sea row comes at the time when
China is promoting new diplomatic approach of peaceful rise and
development. It will be further consolidated as a plan for regional
harmony with the new leadership line up later this year. Therefore
Beijing does not understand why Asean would allow the Philippines and
Vietnam to turn things upside down in Asean-China relations. Beijing has
already placed relations with developing countries in Southeast Asia as
the number one foreign policy priority followed the South China Sea
tension. China's ties with major powers especially the US, Russia and
Europe are predictable and stable. However, now any tension between
China and Asean could harm their major powers' relations.
Finally, the explanation for the last answer f) is rather
self-fullfilling. All of the above mentioned players have effectively
held Asean hostage one way or another as well. Many decisions were now
stuck because there was no joint communiqué to officially state their
deliberations. All player have used Asean as a play toy for their own
benefits all the way, utilizing the rhetoric and tactics that Asean
leaders are familiar too. The Asean chair knows full well his pejorative
power to shape the agenda and content. He exercised it with prudence.
Likewise, Asean claimants and non-claimants understand deep in their
heart they would never be able to unite again with on common position on
South China Sea as in March 1995. That was why the Philippines has
taken all necessary steps to boost its own position, including increased
defence cooperation with the US, much to the chagrins of other Asean
members. The US and China will compete, confront and cooperation within
the Asean frameworks. In the past, nobody was worried about such
engagements because Asean spoke with one voice. From now on, all hell
can break loose. Good luck Asean.